Central Arkansas

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	223.0
Current RPI:	223
Expected SOS:	316
Current SOS:	316
Current Record:	16-16
Expected Record:	16-16
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-5
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	259
Expected OOC SOS:	337

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-16	223.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	107-66	L	0%
11-15	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	106-101	L	0%
11-19	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	102-76	W	100%
11-21	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	A	64-73	W	100%
11-25	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	92-72	L	0%
11-27	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	82-78	W	100%
11-29	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	71-65	L	0%
12-4	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	78-76	L	0%
12-6	California (216.0)	P12	A	69-96	W	100%
12-9	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	69-54	W	100%
12-17	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	98-94	L	0%
12-20	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	96-82	L	0%
12-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	81-69	W	100%
12-31	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	69-73	L	0%
1-3	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	82-76	L	0%
1-6	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	91-100	W	100%
1-10	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	92-76	W	100%
1-13	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	86-79	L	0%
1-17	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	57-81	W	100%
1-20	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	63-80	L	0%
1-24	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	100-92	W	100%
1-27	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	78-95	W	100%
2-3	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	89-84	L	0%
2-7	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	80-100	W	100%
2-14	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	72-76	L	0%
2-17	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	83-87	L	0%
2-21	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	97-62	L	0%
2-24	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	72-74	W	100%
2-28	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	88-70	W	100%
3-3	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	61-58	W	100%
3-7	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	N	57-67	W	100%
3-8	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	N	86-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Arkansas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Arkansas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Arkansas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Arkansas	Slnd	26.48	26.48	54.17	54.17	2.21	2.21
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	5.55	5.55	81.48	81.48	3.49	3.49
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.04	4.04	51.85	51.85	0.15	0.15
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.01	4.01	60.71	60.71	0.86	0.86
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.91	3.91	57.69	57.69	0.60	0.60
Lamar	Slnd	3.91	3.91	57.69	57.69	0.60	0.60
Abilene Christian	Slnd	3.88	3.88	44.00	44.00	-0.47	-0.47
Northwestern St.	Slnd	3.87	3.87	8.70	8.70	-3.20	-3.20
Little Rock	SB	3.18	3.18	17.86	17.86	-2.04	-2.04
Morehead St.	OVC	3.12	3.12	20.00	20.00	-1.88	-1.88
New Orleans	Slnd	2.45	2.45	44.44	44.44	-0.27	-0.27
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.41	2.41	32.00	32.00	-0.87	-0.87
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.38	2.38	29.17	29.17	-0.99	-0.99
Incarnate Word	Slnd	2.37	2.37	13.04	13.04	-1.75	-1.75
Houston Baptist	Slnd	2.36	2.36	11.11	11.11	-1.84	-1.84
UCLA	P12	1.68	1.68	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Baylor	B12	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Oregon	P12	1.64	1.64	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
California	P12	1.63	1.63	26.67	26.67	-0.76	-0.76
Tulsa	Amer	1.62	1.62	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.59	1.59	25.93	25.93	-0.76	-0.76
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	27.59	27.59	-0.71	-0.71
San Francisco	WCC	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.30	0.30	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.27	0.27	80.65	80.65	0.17	0.17
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
USC	P12	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
LSU	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Arizona St.	P12	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Rice	CUSA	0.14	0.14	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01